The Fiscal Impact of Brain Drain in Turkiye and a Compensatory Tax Mechanism: An Assessment of the Bhagwati Tax

Brain drain–the international migration of highly educated individuals–imposes not only demographic and social challenges but also significant economic consequences for developing countries. In particular, it results in substantial fiscal losses when publicly funded human capital is transferred abroad. This study estimates the fiscal burden of brain drain in Türkiye by calculating the public cost of university graduate emigration between 2015 and 2023. Using data from the Council of Higher Education, Turkish Statistical Institute, and education expenditure statistics, the analysis links emigration rates to per–student public spending. Results show that the number of emigrated graduates exceeded 146.000 during this period, leading to a cumulative public cost of over 4.6 billion Turkish Liras, which corresponds to approximately 511 million dollars. The study discusses these losses in the context of the Bhagwati Tax, a proposed compensatory tax on skilled emigrants. While the tax offers a normative framework, its implementation is limited by legal and political barriers. As an alternative, the study proposes a voluntary, earmarked diaspora fund, remittance-linked and return incentives, and institutionalised knowledge-and-innovation compacts with the diaspora. This research provides one of the first systematic estimates of the brain drain's fiscal cost in Türkiye and contributes to discussions on equitable responses to skilled migration.