Покращення продовольчої безпеки у провінції Східна Ява завдяки динамічному моделюванню доступності бройлерів

This study models the broiler chicken supply chain in East Java Province using a dynamic system modeling approach to improve food security. The research focuses on the broiler chicken supply chain system, which, despite increasing production, still faces challenges of availability and price volatility. The main problem addressed is the lack of dynamic model capable of capturing the complex and non-linear relationships within this system, which hinders the development of proactive strategic insights. The dynamic model was successfully validated with a high degree of accuracy, with the E1 error value being less than 2.59% and E2 less than 2.09%. Simulation results demonstrate that the adoption of industrial technology has a significant and measurable impact. The automated cage technology (closed-house) scenario can increase average production by 5.5% in the long term, with projected production reaching 633,684 tons by 2034. This is explained by a decrease in mortality rates from 4–5% to 2–3%, which creates a positive reinforcing loop. Meanwhile, the big data scenario can increase the accuracy of demand predictions by 3.7%, enabling better and more stable supply adjustments and consequently reducing the gap between production and consumption. The key advantage of these findings is their ability to predict long-term system behavior and integrate the cumulative impact of technological changes, a feature that conventional static methods lack. The solution can be used by policymakers and industry players to design proactive, data-driven strategies. The results can be applied to formulate investment policies, resource allocation, and supply chain management strategies to ensure a stable supply of animal protein in East Java, directly contributing to the achievement of sustainable food security goals