Bayesian Confirmation of Classical Catholic Ontology via the TNA Theorem

"Like Mohawk ironworkers on early skyscrapers, these papers are written without guardrails. The danger is not falling — it is realizing how high you already are.”We apply Bayesian model comparison to the Theorem of Axiomatic Necessity (TNA), a recently proved result in first-order logic showing that every observable system requires a finite, external, non-derivable support core. Under standard Bayesian updating, we show that classical Catholic ontology —as defined by the first seven ecumenical councils (325–787 AD)— is the only pre-existing metaphysical framework that assigned probability \approx 1 to the structural condition later proved by TNA. All self-sufficient ontologies (materialism, pantheism, deism, closed physicalism) are eliminated (posterior $\to 0$). Agnostic or minimalist frameworks are severely penalized. The result is not theological proof, but a Bayesian inversion: the TNA does not confirm Catholicism — it discovers that Catholicism had already encoded the theorem’s structure centuries before its formal demonstration.