Decision Integrity under Uncertainty: A Compendium for Anomalous Systems Analysis Application

This compendium presents Anomalous Systems Analysis (ASA) as a decision-support framework for interpreting epistemic strain in complex systems operating under uncertainty. ASA is designed to render the conditions under which decisions are made legible, rather than to predict outcomes, optimize actions, or assert authority. The work consolidates three tightly integrated components: (i) a formal methods foundation defining ASA’s core constructs, including Systemic Pressure, Pressure Acceleration, Epistemic Integrity, and Decision Distortion; (ii) a validation companion study employing retrospective and synthetic analyses to examine whether these constructs behave coherently when applied to historical and simulated contexts using only contemporaneously available information; and (iii) a civic instantiation framework, the ASA Urban Resilience Node (AURN), which demonstrates how ASA principles may be embedded within governance systems while preserving ethical constraints, transparency, and human decision authority. Throughout the compendium, ASA is framed as an advisory, non-prescriptive framework that prioritizes epistemic integrity, reversibility, and restraint in the presence of uncertainty. The work explicitly distinguishes diagnostic validity from predictive accuracy and incorporates formal safeguards against misuse, politicization, surveillance, and overconfidence. Appendices provide consolidated equations, controlled vocabulary, anticipated objections, and a minimum viable standard specification governing compliant use of ASA and ASA-derived frameworks. Released under an open license, this compendium is intended as a foundational reference for interdisciplinary research, methodological development, and responsible civic application in contexts where uncertainty, correlation, and decision pressure converge.