Using Deductive Logic Reasoning to Probe the Internal Data Accessibility of the Bat Sample Virus Database at WIV Regarding the Intractable 'Lab P vs. No P' Problem

The origin of SARS-CoV-2 remains not clearly resolved due to a lack of direct evidence. The natural spillover (zoonosis) hypothesis has been supported by the mainstream research community, while alternative laboratory-related scenarios - commonly referred to as the lab-leak theory—suggest that Dr. Zhengli Shi’s coronavirus research laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) may have possessed a pre-pandemic precursor virus (P) of SARS-CoV-2. The debate between these perspectives has persisted for five years, highlighting the need for continued scientific investigation and broader data access. Here, a novel deductive logic approach is proposed to probe the pre-pandemic internal data accessibility of the bat virus database at WIV based on existing scientific evidence. The fact that a junior graduate student (Yu Ping) was permitted to explore Ra4991/RaTG13 in the laboratory during 2018–June 2019 warrants closer examination. Ra4991/RaTG13, sharing 96.2% overall genomic similarity with SARSCoV-2, was the only known member of SARS-CoV-2–related bat betacoronaviruses prior to the pandemic. This study begins with the premise that, in addition to Ra4991, the laboratory may have possessed a hypothetical precursor virus of one of two types: P_ (≥96% genomic similarity to SARS-CoV-2, lacking the PRRA insertion in the spike protein) and P_PRRA (≥96% genomic similarity with the critical Furin cleavage site PRRA insertion). Based on the internal open-access status of Ra4991, four types of theoretical combinations of data accessibility for Ra4991 and P_ or P_PRRA were examined. • Scenarios in which both Ra4991 and P_ or P_PRRA were open-access did not occur. • Scenarios in which both Ra4991 and P_ or P_PRRA were restricted-access also did not occur. • The scenario in which Ra4991 was open while P_ was restricted cannot be determined; however, this uncertainty does not affect the logical conclusions, as P_ alone cannot spontaneously acquire the PRRA insertion to generate SARS-CoV-2. • Scenarios Ra4991 being open while P_PRRA or a P_ -> P_PRRA_Lab (engineered virus on P_ backbone) was restricted. Considering relevant facts, scientific evidence, laboratory practices, and principles of Occam’s Razor, the most plausible conclusion is that these two scenarios are unlikely. In other words, if a high-risk precursor had existed, Ra4991 itself would have been placed under restricted access. The internal open-access status of Ra4991/RaTG13 therefore casts reasonable doubt on claims that the laboratory knowingly possessed a direct precursor of SARS-CoV-2 prior to June 2019. This analysis provids a valuable contribution to the ongoing debate regarding the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Correction: on page 14 of this version, Scenario Type-3 was incorrectly titled “Strong scientific possibilities.” This needs to be revised to “Scenario Type-3: Scientifically Weak Possibilities with Contradictory Evidence” to align with the analytical conclusions presented in the text. ~ ~ ~ P.S. As a careful observer—like a juror navigating the overlapping courts of science and public scrutiny—I have maintained an open mind regarding the debate over the origin of SARS-CoV-2. In this analysis, I have presented a reasoned doubt concerning the claims advanced by the “prosecutor” side, which suggest that the bat lady's laboratory at WIV knowingly possessed a precursor of SARS-CoV-2 prior to the pandemic. I welcome your comments, suggestions, or rebuttals. [email protected] Wo, G. (2025). Using Deductive Logic Reasoning to Probe the Internal Data Accessibility of the Bat Sample Virus Database at WIV Regarding the Intractable 'Lab P vs. No P' Problem. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18023106