Does Grazing or Climate Change Transform Vegetation More Rapidly? A Case Study of Calcareous Sandy Grasslands in the Pannonian Region

In this study, we compare two contrasting years within the 2020–2025 period—one characterized by extreme heat and drought, and another by unusually high precipitation. We used five years of climatic data provided by the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), along with vegetation activity indices (NDVI—Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; NDWI—Normalized Difference Water Index) derived from Sentinel-2A satellite imagery. In parallel, during three years of the study period (2020, 2022, and 2025), we collected five phytosociological relevés in each of the five vegetation types subjected to different management regimes. For data analysis, we applied Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA), and the Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interaction (AMMI) model. Vegetation index patterns were compared with the relative water requirements of the constituent plant species. In the ungrazed dry sandy site, climatic fluctuations did not significantly affect vegetation composition and the habitat remained a stable open sandy grassland. Among the four grazed sites, grazing intensity remained unchanged during the study in three cases (N1, N2, and SZ). Thus, vegetation changes observed in these areas can be attributed to climatic factors. Vegetation composition shifted in N1 and N2, whereas no significant change was detected in the drier SZ site. This indicates higher resistance to grazing in SZ, which can therefore be sustainably used as pasture, while the N1–N2 sites responded sensitively to precipitation variability under identical grazing pressure and are better suited for use as meadows. The most pronounced changes occurred at the P site, which had previously functioned as an animal resting area and began regenerating after abandonment in 2022. Vegetation composition shifted markedly within two years, demonstrating that land-use practices exert a stronger influence on sandy grassland vegetation than climatic fluctuations. Overall, the drier habitats were more resilient to both grazing pressure and climatic variability and are suitable for grazing, whereas the moister vegetation types were more sensitive and should preferably be managed as hay meadows.