Spatial Effects of Implicit Land Use Transition on Land Use Carbon Emissions: A Spatial Econometric Analysis at the County Level in Hebei Province, China

Focusing on Hebei Province in China, the work investigated the impact of implicit land use transition (ILUT) on land use carbon emissions (LUCEs) for dual carbon goals. A county-level evaluation system and a measurement model were constructed to explore ILUT and carbon emissions’ spatiotemporal progression, respectively. The optimal spatial econometric model was selected by employing different testing methods to elucidate how ILUT affected carbon emissions. LUCEs increased from 49.7964 million tons (2000) to 107.401 million tons (2015) and dropped to 92.2173 million tons by 2020. The overall exhibited an inverted V-shape. Values were generally higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest. ILUT index across counties increased from 2000 to 2020, with polarization of implicit indices intensified. Spatial distribution showed that the southeastern area exhibited notably higher values compared to the northwestern parts. Significant positive spatial correlation existed between ILUT and carbon emissions within the county, while a significant negative spatial correlation was observed with carbon emissions in neighboring counties. These findings provide scientific support for formulating differentiated land use policies and optimizing carbon emission control strategies in Hebei Province, holding significant practical value for regional dual carbon targets.