Environmental Influences on Deep Convective Upscale Growth Rate in Central Argentina From a Convection‐Permitting Simulation

Abstract This study uses a convection‐permitting model simulation to describe the environmental conditions under which convective upscale growth occurs in central Argentina, particularly examining environmental parameters when deep convection initially forms that could differentiate the rate of initial upscale growth. Simulated mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are separated into slow and rapid growth by the rate of spatial growth from convection initiation until reaching the MCS scale. A low‐level jet (LLJ) is found more frequently near the deep convection that experiences rapid growth to an MCS, but its presence alone is not predictive of rapid growth. Using spatially‐averaged parameters, we find that rapid growth to MCSs also occurs in environments that are significantly more thermodynamically favorable with greater low‐level moisture and instability. Fewer significant differences are found in the kinematic environment with only the 0–2 km vertical wind shear magnitude being significantly larger for rapid growth MCSs compared to slow growth MCSs, potentially related to LLJs often peaking near this height. When focusing only on MCSs with the slowest and fastest growth rates, elevated‐layer shear is significantly smaller for very rapid growth MCSs, suggesting elevated‐layer shear may help discriminate between the upper and lower bounds of growth rate. Finally, when upscale growth occurs near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC) with a LLJ present, rapid growth is also supported by favorable wind shear orientation. However, this does not hold for upscale growth occurring away from the SDC, highlighting the importance of interpreting shear direction relative to the orientation of features initiating deep convection.