BEYOND SENTIMENT: A MULTI-FACTOR VALUATION MODEL FOR SOVEREIGN DIGITAL ASSETS INTEGRATING ON-CHAIN MICROSTRUCTURE

Traditional valuation models for Bitcoin (BTC) often rely heavily on retail sentiment indicators (e.g., "Fear & Greed Index") or simple technical analysis. This paper proposes a proprietary econometric framework, the Q-Capital Algorithm, which transitions from sentiment-based valuation to a structural "Supply-Side & Leverage" model. By analyzing the correlation between Global Liquidity ($M2$), On-Chain Exchange Reserves ($X_9$), and Perpetual Futures Funding Rates ($X_{10}$), we demonstrate that price discovery in the 2025-2026 cycle is driven by institutional scarcity rather than retail speculation. Additionally, we present the Dynamic Risk Signaling System (DRSS), a calibrated risk-management module for high-volatility environments.