LLM-Augmented Sensor Fusion for Urban Socioeconomic Monitoring: A Cyber–Physical–Social Systems Perspective

Urban welfare can deteriorate over a few weeks, yet most official indicators are only updated quarterly. This mismatch in time scales leaves city administrations effectively blind to the early stages of emerging crises, especially in areas where vulnerable residents generate few administrative or digital records. We cast urban socioeconomic monitoring as a systems problem: a six-dimensional welfare state on a spatial grid, observed through sparse delayed administrative data and noisy digital traces whose reliability declines with digital exclusion. On top of this latent state, we design a four-layer cyber–physical–social (CPSS) architecture centered on a stochastic state-space model with empirically guided couplings. This is supported by a semantic sensing layer where large language models (LLMs) convert daily geo-referenced public text into noisy welfare indicators. These signals are then fused with quarterly administrative records via an extended Kalman filter (EKF). Finally, a lightweight convex post-processing layer enforces fairness, differential privacy, and minimum representation as hard constraints. A key ingredient is a state-dependent noise model in which the LLM observation variance grows exponentially with digital exclusion. Under this model, we study finite-horizon observability and obtain an exclusion threshold beyond which several welfare dimensions become effectively unobservable over 30–60 day horizons; EKF error bounds scale with the same exponent, clarifying when semantic sensing is informative and when it is not. Finally, a 100,000-agent agent-based model of a synthetic city with daily shocks suggests that, relative to a quarterly-only baseline, the LLM-augmented fusion pipeline substantially reduces detection lags and multi-dimensional cascade failures while keeping estimation error bounded and satisfying the explicit fairness and privacy constraints.