Multi-Decadal Vegetation Phenology Dynamics in China’s Arid Northwest: Unraveling Climate–Terrain Interactions via PLS-SEM

The dry area in northwest China (ARNC), with its tough climate, serious soil erosion, and poor soil quality, is one of China’s most fragile ecosystems. Studying changes in plant growth cycles here is very important for improving environmental monitoring and making plans to adapt to climate change. While vegetation growing season parameters (Start/End of Season: SOS/EOS) serve as vital indicators of ecosystem dynamics, comprehensive understanding has been constrained by limited long-term phenological datasets and insufficient exploration of multi-factor interactions. This study used PLS-SEM to analyze 27-year (1990–2016) vegetation index data, systematically quantifying spatiotemporal variations in growing season phenology and disentangling climate–terrain driving mechanisms. The results revealed the following key findings. (1) Spatial heterogeneity in phenological patterns, with the annual average Start of Season (SOS) and End of Season (EOS) being 114.7 Day and 301.7 Day, respectively, exhibiting a northwest–high to southeast–low gradient. The findings indicate a prolongation of the vegetation growing season, with significant spatial variability. (2) Interannual fluctuations showed the SOS and EOS coefficient of variation (CV) values of 0.230 and 0.234, respectively, with southeastern regions displaying higher instability than northwestern counterparts. (3) The spatial variation in SOS/EOS is primarily influenced by meteorological and geographical factors, with an explanatory power exceeding 30%. This research advances mechanistic understandings of arid ecosystem responses to environmental stressors, providing a scientific foundation for targeted ecological restoration, desertification mitigation, and sustainable land management in climate-sensitive drylands.