Modelling the Drivers of Income Shocks Among Civil Servant Farming Households in Southwest Nigeria

This study examined the determinants of income shocks among farming civil servant households in Southwest Nigeria.Using a multistage sampling technique, 360 respondents were selected, and data were analyzed through descriptive statistics and a Probit regression model.Findings revealed that inconsistent salary payments were the primary source of income shocks, with 86.4% of respondents reporting irregular salary disbursements.Despite this, the overall impact on households was moderated, indicating the presence of coping mechanisms or supplementary income sources.The Probit regression analysis identified inconsistent salary payments (p < 0.05), shortage of rainfall (p < 0.05), high cost of improved crop varieties (p < 0.01), and high cost of fertilizer (p < 0.01) as significant determinants of income shocks.Based on these findings, the study recommends policies to ensure timely and consistent salary payments, guarantee access to subsidized farm inputs, promote climate-smart agricultural practices, and expand access to credit and insurance for civil servant farmers.Additionally, livelihood diversification should be encouraged to reduce dependence on a single income source.Implementing these measures would stabilize household income, enhance agricultural productivity, and reduce the vulnerability of civil servant farming households to income shocks.