Wavelet Analysis of Global Supply Chain Pressures in OECD Economies: The Asymmetric Role of Oil Prices, Industrial Production, and Exchange Rates

This paper examines the factors contributing to global supply chain pressures in OECD countries, focusing on the asymmetric impact of oil prices, industrial production and exchange rates. With a structured dataset spanning the month from 1998 to 2025 and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), the wavelet power spectrum (WPS) and wavelet transform coherence (WTC) methods are used to capture time–frequency dynamics. Findings reveal that oil price is the asset with the highest spillover impact on the supply chain stress, particularly during systemic crises, including the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2014 oil price crash, and most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. There is asymmetry in the effects of industrial production (aggregate demand) shocks such that the contributions of positive aggregate demand shocks to increasing pressures are greater than the contributions of the negative ones to reducing them. Variation of exchange rates adds stress through import cost channels and has both pass-through and feedback effects. These results emphasize the multifaceted nature of the supply chain pressures and underscore the importance of policy frameworks that include time-frequency monitoring to augment system resilience.