The Impact of Supply and Demand Changes on Non‐Real‐Estate Agricultural Loans

ABSTRACT This study examines the degree to which changes in non‐real‐estate agricultural loans at commercial banks are driven by changes in supply or demand. Our identification strategy exploits information provided by agricultural lending surveys conducted by three Federal Reserve Banks: Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis. Building on recent studies of loan officer opinion surveys, we estimate the changes in agricultural loan supply and demand using an unbalanced panel of 1028 banks across the 2002–2021 period. The survey responses provide instruments for supply and demand changes to examine fluctuations in bank‐level agricultural loan volumes obtained from Federal Financial Institutions Examinations Council quarterly “call reports.” We find that changes in the volume of non‐real‐estate farm loans at commercial banks are principally driven by changes in excess loan demand. These findings support a careful approach for policies aimed at boosting supply of agricultural credit. JEL Classification: Q14, G21, Q00