Identifying physical vulnerability drivers increasing in exposed structures to floods

Diverse structures serve protective functions against floods, yet they remain constantly exposed to water currents, which increase their physical vulnerability. Thus, identifying key factors can be complex given the interrelationships and interactions among hydrological, hydraulic, geomorphological, and many other variables. This study analyzes 13 factors related to the physical vulnerability of structures exposed to flooding from experts' judgment judgment-based approach byCross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) and multivariate statistics using Principal Components Analysis PCA, and Categorical Principal Component Analysis CATPCA, to highlight the identification of key factors. Subsequently, Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was used to establish metric comparisons between methods. The study evaluated 22 structures along a 20 km stretch of the main channel of the Combeima River in Colombia, using hydrological and hydraulic modeling over a 54-year period (1971–2024), under land-use change scenarios. Results indicate that factors related to the type of cover and the infiltration were highly influential on the level of physical vulnerability. Therefore, the proposed methodology and results can provide elements of judgment for planners in formulating and implementing flood risk management practices. • Flood generators in land use change scenarios in a mountain watershed. • Evaluation of the physical vulnerability of structures to flooding under land-use change scenarios. • Physical vulnerability assessment of structures to flooding in land-use change scenarios. • Topsoil properties linked to physical vulnerability of structures in flood regime. • Key factors in the physical vulnerability of flood-prone structures were identified.