Decoding booking cancellations: Quantitative insights and theoretical advances in tourism behavior

This study investigates the determinants and timing of hotel booking cancellations through an integrative theoretical and empirical approach. Drawing on the theory of planned behavior, transaction cost theory, prospect theory, and strategic decision-making, we offer a comprehensive framework that explains both why and when cancellations occur. Utilizing a unique dataset of over two million hotel bookings from Mallorca, Spain (2021–2024), we apply time-to-event modeling and a linear probability model to explore cancellation patterns. Our results show that cancellation behavior is determined by a complex interplay of refundability terms, booking window, consumer nationality, travel party composition, hotel characteristics, and pricing dynamics. Findings reveal a non-linear (inverted U-shaped) relationship between booking window and cancellation likelihood, and highlight strategic consumer behavior around penalty windows and rebooking opportunities. This study contributes to tourism literature by combining theoretical depth with large-scale observational data to explain temporal and behavioral nuances in booking cancellations.