Analysis of Groundnut Exports and GDP Dynamics in Nigeria (1972–2022)

This study examined the impact of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea) exports on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 1971 to 2022, employing multiple linear regression techniques with log-transformed variables. The analysis included key macroeconomic indicators, such as the exchange rate, inflation, per capita income, and groundnut yield per hectare, to determine their collective and individual effects on economic growth. The regression results reveal that while groundnut exports (INEXP) exhibit a positive coefficient (0.008257), the effect on GDP is statistically weak, suggesting a limited direct contribution to national output. Conversely, the exchange rate (INEXRATE) and per capita income (INPERCAP) show strong and statistically significant relationships with GDP growth, with coefficients of 0.123033 and 1.148422, respectively. Inflation (ININFLA) showed a negative but statistically insignificant impact on GDP. In contrast, groundnut yield per hectare (INYIELD_HA) demonstrates a negligible effect, highlighting the inefficiency of productivity gains without market integration or value addition. Findings from the study underscore the need for targeted policy interventions to revitalize the groundnut export sector through infrastructure investment, value chain development, and quality enhancement. Additionally, managing exchange rate policy and improving household income remain critical for driving inclusive economic growth. This study provides empirical evidence to support Nigeria’s non-oil export diversification agenda and informs policy under regional trade initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).