Advancing Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Simulation and Projection With Eddy‐Resolving Climate Models

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) plays a critical role in driving hydrological extremes. However, current generation climate models often fail to capture TC inner‐core dynamical structures, leading to substantial underestimation (>50%) of TC rainfall (TCR). Here, using a set of eddy‐resolving high‐resolution (HR) simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we show that simulated TCR closely aligns with observations, primarily due to the improved TC upward motion. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, projected TCR increases in non‐eddy‐resolving models reach only 15%–50% of those in HR CESM, likely reflecting their large historical TCR biases. Owing to suppressed TC upward motion, the projected TCR fractional increase by non‐eddy‐resolving models remain comparable to or below the Clausius‐Clapeyron (C‐C) scaling. In contrast, HR CESM projects a much larger TCR increase rate (∼12.0% K −1 ), exceeding the C‐C rate and driven by a strengthened TC upward motion.