Beyond Extreme Burstiness: Evolving Star Formation Efficiency as the Key to Early Galaxy Abundance

Abstract JWST observations have revealed an overabundance of bright galaxies at z ≥ 9, creating apparent tensions with theoretical predictions within standard ΛCDM cosmology. We address this challenge using a semiempirical approach that connects dark matter halos to the observed UV luminosity through a physically motivated double power-law star formation efficiency (SFE) model as a function of the halo mass and redshift, and perform a joint Bayesian analysis of luminosity functions spanning z = 4–16 using combined Hubble Space Telescope and JWST data. Through systematic model comparison using information criteria (Akaike, Bayesian, and deviance information criteria), we identify the optimal framework requiring redshift evolution only in the low-mass slope parameter α ( z ) while maintaining other SFE parameters constant. Our best-fitting model achieves excellent agreement with observations using modest, constant UV scatter σ UV = 0.32 dex–significantly lower than the ≳1.3 dex values suggested by previous studies for z > 13. This reduced scatter requirement is compensated by strongly evolving star formation efficiency, with α increasing toward higher redshifts, indicating enhanced star formation in low-mass halos during the cosmic dawn. The model also successfully reproduces other important observational diagnostics, such as effective galaxy bias and cosmic star formation density, consistently across the full redshift range. Furthermore, model predictions are consistent up to a redshift of z ∼ 20. Our results demonstrate that JWST’s early galaxy observations can be reconciled with standard cosmology through the interplay of modest stochasticity and evolving star formation physics, without invoking extreme burstiness or exotic mechanisms.