Research on the Reliability of Lithium-Ion Battery Systems for Sustainable Development: Life Prediction and Reliability Evaluation Methods Under Multi-Stress Synergy

Driven by the dual imperatives of global energy transition and sustainable development goals, lithium-ion batteries, as critical energy storage carriers, have seen the assessment of their lifecycle reliability and durability become a core issue underpinning the sustainable operation of clean energy systems. Grounded in a multidimensional perspective of sustainable development, this study aims to establish a quantifiable and monitorable battery reliability evaluation framework to address the challenges to lifespan and performance sustainability faced by batteries under complex multi-stress coupled operating conditions. Lithium-ion batteries are widely used across various fields, making an accurate assessment of their reliability crucial. In this study, to evaluate the lifespan and reliability of lithium-ion batteries when operating in various coupling stress environments, a multi-stress collaborative accelerated model(MCAM) considering interaction is established. The model takes into account the principal stress effects and the interaction effects. The former is developed based on traditional acceleration models (such as the Arrhenius model), while the latter is constructed through the combination of exponential, power, and logarithmic functions. This study firstly considers the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution as an acceleration effect, and the relationship between characteristic life and stresses is explored through the synergistic action of primary and interaction effects. Subsequently, a multi-stress maximum likelihood estimation method that considers interaction effects is formulated, and the model parameters are estimated using the gradient descent algorithm. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated through simulation, and numerical examples on lithium-ion batteries demonstrate that accurate lifetime prediction is enabled by the MCAM, with test duration, cost, and resource consumption significantly reduced. This study not only provides a scientific quantitative tool for advancing the sustainability assessment of battery systems, but also offers methodological support for relevant policy formulation, industry standard optimization, and full lifecycle management, thereby contributing to the synergistic development of energy storage technology across the economic, environmental, and social dimensions of sustainability.