SHORT- AND LONG-RUN EFFECTS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TRANSITION ON POPULATION GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY: EVIDENCE FROM DYNAMIC PANEL GMM MODELS

This study investigates the dynamic interrelationship between population growth, renewable energy adoption, and carbon emissions within a system GMM framework, drawing on a balanced panel of countries and spanning the period 1990–2023. The analysis is motivated by Malthusian and neo-Malthusian perspectives, which emphasize the interaction between demographic expansion and environmental constraints. Empirical results reveal weak short-run effects of renewable energy and trade openness on population dynamics, yet underscore the long-term role of renewable adoption in mitigating carbon dependency and enhancing sustainable development pathways. Unit root and stationarity tests confirm the robustness of the data series, while correlation analysis suggests modest linkages between renewable energy, emissions, and economic activity. The GMM estimation indicates limited immediate impacts, but diagnostic tests highlight the importance of long-run policy consistency and institutional quality in reinforcing the population–energy–environment nexus. The findings suggest that a comprehensive mix of renewable deployment, governance reforms, and demographic-sensitive planning is essential to align economic growth with global climate objectives.