Energy Substitution Effect and Supply Chain Transformation in China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry: Evidence from DEA-Malmquist and Tobit Model Analysis

The global shift towards sustainable energy and stringent climate policies has underscored the need for decarbonizing energy systems, electrifying transportation, and transforming supply chains. In this context, China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) industry, as the largest global producer and consumer of automobiles, is pivotal in advancing energy substitution and achieving carbon reduction goals. This study investigates the energy efficiency and supply chain transformation within China’s NEV sector, leveraging panel data from 12 representative provinces over the period 2017–2023. Employing a robust analytical framework that integrates the DEA-BCC model, Malmquist index, and Tobit regression, the study provides a dynamic and regionally differentiated assessment of NEV industry efficiency. The results reveal significant improvements in total factor energy efficiency, predominantly driven by technological progress. R&D intensity, infrastructure development, and environmental regulation are identified as key enablers of efficiency, while excessive government intervention tends to hinder performance. The findings offer valuable empirical insights and policy recommendations for optimizing China’s NEV industry in the context of energy system transformation and sustainable industrial development.