Present to Past Reflection? Notes on the 1114/5 C.E. Earthquake Sequence After the February 2023 Türkiye Doublet

Abstract This study examines the seismic sequence of 1114/5 C.E. which occurred in southern Türkiye through the lens of the well-documented February 2023 Türkiye doublet. By drawing parallels between the two, the analysis compares the spatial distribution of damage, temporal clustering, and tectonic context to better constrain the poorly understood twelfth-century scenario. A systematic re-evaluation of the historical sources was conducted with attention to their inherent uncertainties. Using kernel density estimation (KDE) on interpreted intensity data points, we identified two persistent hotspots of destruction near Kahramanmaraş–Elbistan and near Antakya in both the 1114/5 and 2023 sequences, suggesting a recurring pattern of seismic energy release along distinct fault segments. The examination of the spread and severity of the damage indicated that at least one of the 1114/5 earthquakes likely exceeded magnitude 7, comparable to the 2023 doublet. Paleoseismological evidence further supports a dual-fault rupture scenario in 1114/5, analogous to stress-triggered ruptures observed in 2023. This reverse-historic approach using recent seismicity to constrain pre-instrumental earthquakes provides a useful pathway for reconstructing ancient seismic sequences and underscores the capability of the East Anatolian fault zone to generate large earthquakes.