Expectation-Based Fairness in Agricultural Markets: Implications for Antitrust Policy

Claims of unfairness often arise when individuals’ expectations are violated. Evaluating such claims requires understanding the nature and basis of those expectations. This paper examines farmers’ fairness perceptions through two case studies: policy changes to water access rights and the use of dicamba in agricultural areas. We illustrate how expectations are rooted in identifiable bases, propose methods for uncovering those bases, and assess their presence in farmers’ statements. Our findings demonstrate the feasibility of identifying expectation bases, enabling more objective assessments of unfairness claims. This approach offers an alternative to normative fairness frameworks and has implications for antitrust and competition policy. In markets where concentration and power asymmetries are prevalent, fairness perceptions influence participation, trust, and regulatory legitimacy. Understanding expectation-based fairness claims can help policy-makers evaluate harms not captured by traditional metrics and design more responsive competition and contract policies.