Sustainable Markets Under Geopolitical Stress: Do ESG Indices Outperform Technology Indices in Resilience?

In the face of growing geopolitical instability, an important question remains whether ESG (Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance) indices are sensitive to geopolitical shocks and whether they can act as protective assets. The aim of the study was to empirically compare the STOXX Global ESG Leaders index with the response of the technology sector (Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)) to changes in the geopolitical risk index (GPR). Monthly data from 2019 to 2025 were used, along with a procedure including Vector Autoregression (VAR) modeling, Impulse Response Function (IRF) analyses, the Johansen test, and Granger causality tests. The results indicate a lack of significant relationships between GPR and the analyzed indices in the short and long term: no cointegration was found, IRF responses were weak and quickly faded, and Granger tests did not demonstrate the predictive power of GPR for the analyzed markets. VAR forecasts additionally confirmed the stable trend, unrelated to GPR fluctuations. The results suggest that ESG indices are not directly affected by geopolitical shocks, which indicate their relative resilience. A similar response was observed for technological indices. The results may have practical implications for investors interested in sustainable investing while looking for stable assets in periods of global uncertainty. The results may be important for institutional investors in terms of portfolio stabilization functions during periods of increased geopolitical uncertainty, and for policymakers and market regulators in the context of designing frameworks supporting the stability of ESG markets.