Quantifying the potential of energy communities in renewable electricity generation in The Netherlands

Energy communities (ECs) are seen as a promising concept towards a just energy transition. They can act as a catalyst for social tipping points and accelerate the shift to renewable energy while keeping benefits to local communities. However, no quantitative assessment of ECs' role in future energy system configurations exists. This study fills this gap by quantifying the potential impact of ECs in the Netherlands from 2025 to 2050. We do this by developing a theoretically and empirically grounded agent-based model (BENCH-EC) to explore the formation and development of ECs over time and space. The model benefits from established theoretical frameworks on individual and collective decision-making for EC participation and formation and is calibrated using historical data. A set of scenarios is designed to evaluate various policies and assess the potential uptake and impacts of ECs over time. Our findings show that the potential for ECs is large with over 40 % of the households involved and up to 38 GW of installed capacity of renewables. However, this strongly depends on the chosen scenarios and requires radical breakthroughs and transition processes. The calibrated baseline scenario results in 10 % of the households involved, and 4 GW installed capacity. This research poses a novel model framework and area of quantitative projections and highlights how exploring different scenarios can pinpoint key tradeoffs in locality and inclusivity. Furthermore, it shows how policies require a combination of increased professional capacity and social learning to harvest the interaction effects between those. • Energy communities (ECs) require transitional change for rapid scaling. • We introduce the first empirically validated agent-based model of EC growth. • The model combines individual and collective decision-making frameworks. • By 2050, ECs may involve 10 % to 45 % of the households, depending on policies. • The model highlights key tradeoffs and choices for policy makers and ECs.