Research on the Coupling and Coordinated Evolution of Cultivated Land Use Efficiency and Ecological Safety: A Case Study of Jilin Province (2000–2023)

With increasing emphasis on ecological conservation and food security, cultivated land issues have become more prominent. This study focuses on Jilin Province and uses nine prefecture-level administrative units and prefectures as the basic analytical units. Using continuous data for 2000–2023, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land use efficiency (CLUE). By 2023, most regions had achieved ecological safety (ES), examined through their coupling and coordination. The Super-Efficiency SBM-DEA model and the Malmquist–Luenberger (ML) index were used to evaluate the static and dynamic changes in CLUE. A DPSIR–PLS-SEM integrated framework was applied to identify causal mechanisms influencing ES, while the TOPSIS method was employed to assess overall evolutionary trends. In addition, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model combined with kernel density estimation (KDE) was used to characterize the interaction between CLUE and ES and their spatial evolution. Results indicated the following: (1) From 2000 to 2023, overall CLUE in Jilin Province showed an upward trend with fluctuations, while regional disparities narrowed and spatial distribution became more balanced. (2) The composite ES index increased from 0.3009 to 0.7900, accompanied by a marked expansion of areas classified as secure. (3) The CCD improved from a basic level to a high-quality coordination level, indicating enhanced synergistic development. Higher coordination was observed in central and eastern regions, whereas western and peripheral areas lagged. This study integrates multi-dimensional modeling approaches to systematically assess the coupled dynamics on cultivated land use efficiency and ecological safety, providing insights for land management and policy formulation.