Monetary Cooperation during Global Inflation Surges

We study optimal monetary policy during times of global scarcity of tradable goods. The optimal monetary response entails a surge in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully borne domestically, however, the gains in terms of higher supply of tradable goods partly spill over to the rest of the world. National central banks may thus fall into a coordination trap and implement an excessively tight monetary policy causing an unnecessarily sharp global contraction. (JEL E24, E31, E32, E52, F11, F31, F42)

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Journal
American Economic Review
Published
2025-12-31
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20231018
Primary Topic
Economic theories and models
Type
article
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article

Monetary Cooperation during Global Inflation Surges

Luca Fornaro, Federica Romei
American Economic Review
Economic theories and models
article

Monetary Cooperation during Global Inflation Surges

Luca Fornaro, Federica Romei
article en

Abstract

We study optimal monetary policy during times of global scarcity of tradable goods. The optimal monetary response entails a surge in inflation, which helps rebalance production toward the tradable sector. While the inflation costs are fully borne domestically, however, the gains in terms of higher supply of tradable goods partly spill over to the rest of the world. National central banks may thus fall into a coordination trap and implement an excessively tight monetary policy causing an unnecessarily sharp global contraction. (JEL E24, E31, E32, E52, F11, F31, F42)

American Economic ReviewVol. 116(1)
Center for Economic and Policy Research (US), Universitat Pompeu Fabra (ES), University of Oxford (GB), Barcelona School of Economics (ES)
Partnerships for the goals
Openalex Percentile: Top 19%
Economic theories and models
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