Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of ENSO impacts on rice production and price dynamics in japan under climate change

Abstract Amid escalating global climate change, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has emerged as a critical driver of variability in agri-food systems. Using high-frequency panel data from 46 prefectures in Japan spanning 2000–2025, this study establishes a multi-scale analytical framework to investigate how ENSO influences the rice supply chain. The main findings are as follows: (1) Fixed-effect models combined with climate attribution reveal that ENSO exerts phase-specific effects on rice-growing degree days and effective precipitation. El Niño episodes lengthen the growing season in Kyushu by an average of 11.3 days ( p < 0.01), whereas La Niña conditions intensify precipitation variability in the Tohoku region by 22%. (2) A dynamic threshold panel model demonstrates a pronounced inverted-U relationship between rice yield and climatic factors, with an optimal mean temperature of 26.5 °C (95% CI 25.8–27.2). Beyond this threshold, yields decline by approximately 4.7% per 1 °C increase. (3) By employing a simultaneous-equation model integrating production shocks and policy adjustments, the analysis indicates that ENSO-driven supply responses account for 31% of rice price fluctuations. Furthermore, price elasticity during La Niña years (0.42) is significantly greater than during El Niño years (0.29). This research provides the first quantitative assessment of ENSO sensitivity across Japan’s agro-climatic zones, offering evidence-based guidance for region-specific climate adaptation strategies. The findings carry important implications for advancing UN SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 13 (Climate Action).