Mitigating uncertainty due to the Red Sea Crisis: A scenario development application to the Port of Trieste, Italy

• The Red Sea crisis has severely disrupted supply chains increasing unpredictability. • The scenario development approach is used to envision possible futures. • The 2 × 2 matrix technique enables to identify potential scenarios of intervention. • Traffic flow stability and adequacy of infrastructures form critical uncertainties. • The study supports decision makers defining policy recommendations for resilience. The severe repercussions of the Red Sea crisis on supply chains, as well as the disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have highlighted once again their great vulnerability, especially in the face of major and unpredictable shocks. The impacts of these latter have therefore urged decision makers to define resiliency strategies to cope with the uncertainty characterizing the operating environment. With reference to a transport node, in this paper the scenario development approach has been adopted to formally investigate possible futures for the Port of Trieste, Italy, which was affected by the consequences of the recent geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East, at the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. Notably, the 2 × 2 matrix technique was used to envision potential scenarios after identifying two critical uncertainties, which represent the most impacting and yet uncertain driving forces of the problem at hand. In this way, based on the level of the traffic flow stability and of the adequacy of port transport infrastructures, four different scenarios have been depicted in qualitative terms and then, their implications have been discussed to propose the Port Authority some recommendations on possible counteractions. The results of the study suggest that valuable initiatives should consider risk sharing through public–private partnerships, the diversification of port services and the rapid implementation of technological advancements