Digital autonomy and career choice in China’s digital economy: reconceptualising school dropout through social media narratives

School dropout remains a pressing national and global concern for youth well-being and social mobility, and China’s digital transformation is reconfiguring the opportunity structure linking schooling to careers. This study examines whether dropout motivations shift from Educational Goal Commitment (EGC) and Institutional Commitment (IC) toward Career Goal Commitment (CGC), and whether digital autonomy may amplify this transition. Using a mixed-methods design, we analysed 73,054 anonymised comments from major Chinese video platforms using TopicGPT-assisted, Python-based multi-label topic classification, and conducted thematic analysis of 20 public, self-narrated dropout stories. Quantitative results identified eight dropout-related themes, with career choice the most prevalent. Qualitative narratives traced a gradual motivational sequence in which declining EGC and IC preceded rising CGC, and emphasised perceived low entry barriers and alternative success scripts on platforms. Findings highlight the need for flexible pathways that integrate digital skills and career guidance within schooling, alongside targeted mental health and media literacy.