Chaos as incompetence: deconstructing the myth of strategic disruption in Trump’s economic policy

Purpose This paper aims to examine how disruptive presidential leadership reshapes the business–government nexus by analyzing the Trump administration as a critical case of political and economic transformation. It explores how unilateral governance, policy volatility and weaponized interdependence compelled firms to adopt short-term, defensive and state-contingent innovation strategies. Through a comparative analysis of the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, the study seeks to clarify how differing leadership styles influence corporate behavior, policy uncertainty and long-term institutional resilience. Ultimately, the paper reframes presidential power as a structural force shaping corporate adaptation, innovation trajectories and the stability of capitalist governance. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a comparative qualitative design, integrating theoretical analysis with empirical evidence across the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations. It combines insights from presidential power theory, institutional economics and business strategy to construct an analytical framework linking leadership style to corporate adaptation under policy uncertainty. Data sources include policy documents, economic policy uncertainty indices and secondary literature on trade, innovation and regulation. Comparative case analysis is used to trace causal mechanisms connecting disruptive governance to firm-level strategic responses. This multi-level approach allows for identifying both short-term adaptive behaviors and long-term institutional consequences within the evolving business–government nexus. Findings This study finds that the Trump administration’s disruptive leadership produced policy chaos that often operated as administrative incompetence, forcing firms into defensive, opportunistic and state-contingent innovation. Executive orders, tariffs and regulatory reversals aimed less at creating opportunities than at protecting existing hierarchies. Short-term gains in sectors like semiconductors came alongside fractured supply chains and declining predictability. Firms either aligned with shifting state priorities or diversified abroad to manage volatility. Ultimately, chaotic governance accelerated adaptation, but eroded the coordination, regulatory stability and institutional trust needed for long-term competitiveness. Originality/value This paper reframes presidential power by linking disruptive leadership, and the chaos that signals Trump’s administrative incompetence, to firm-level strategic behavior. Instead of treating policy uncertainty as external, it shows how leadership style and governance design actively produce it. Integrating theories of presidential power, business influence and institutional resilience, the study bridges political science and corporate strategy. A comparison of the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations reveals how politically generated chaos becomes a structural force shaping innovation, exposing the trade-offs between short-term adaptability and long-term institutional stability.