FISCAL OPTIMIZATION AND AI GOVERNANCE: A PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC ACCELERATION IN DOLLARIZED EMERGING MARKETS

This paper analyzes the correlation between fiscal distortions (Capital outflow taxes, Advance income tax, High VAT pressure) and GDP growth in a dollarized economy (Ecuador, 2000-2024). Using a multivariable regression model ($N=25$), we demonstrate that current fiscal pressure acts as a "Liquidity Trap," reducing capital velocity. Furthermore, we propose the "Ecuador 4.0 Model", a simulation where the fiscal deficit caused by tax reduction is fully offset by the implementation of Artificial Intelligence in Public Procurement. The results indicate a potential +4.5% GDP growth with fiscal neutrality in the first year.