Evaluation of desertification dynamics in the frontline states of Northern Nigeria: environmental and socioeconomic impacts

Abstract Desertification and land degradation pose significant environmental challenges that critically undermine sustainable development in Nigeria. This study employed Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques to assess the extent of desertification and land degradation in the frontline states of Northern Nigeria. Both primary and secondary data were analyzed using a combination of Likert scale ratings. Landsat satellite data spanning 38 years (1984–2022) were processed using supervised classification techniques. Imagery from 1984, 1994, 2004, 2014, and 2022 was classified into five land use/land cover (LULC) categories: (i) water bodies, (ii) built-up areas, (iii) bare ground, (iv) dense vegetation, and (v) light vegetation. The LULC analysis revealed a significant decline in dense vegetation by 53.16%, corresponding to an annual rate of change of –6.25%. Conversely, light vegetation increased by 55.45% at an annual rate of 2.37%. Bare land decreased by 2.49% (–6.12% annually), built-up areas expanded by 0.63% (3.36% annually), and water bodies declined by 0.43% (–1.47% annually). The Likert-scale Weighted Mean Scores (WMS) identified sand-dune encroachment (WMS = 4.03), scarcity of animal feed (WMS = 3.79), and soil fertility depletion (WMS = 3.15) as the most critical impacts of desertification in the region. In conclusion, the findings of this study indicate a consistent decline in vegetation cover across the frontline states of Northern Nigeria. To counter these trends, it is imperative to strengthen sustainable land management practices and implement integrated water resource management strategies with the active participation of local communities.