Toward more transparent, high-resolution, stakeholder-engaged energy-transition decision-support modeling

Improved modeling approaches to support decision making are needed to help accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy systems. We offer insights into improving energy transition decision support modeling, drawing on our experience with the Net-Zero America (NZA) project and analogously designed ongoing projects led by researchers in Australia, Brazil, China, India, Republic of Korea, and Poland. The NZA study was impactful because of 1) uniquely high spatial, temporal, sectoral, technological, and socio-economic modeling and visualization using objective, transparent, and scientifically rigorous methods and 2) complementary policy-actionable bridging analyses informed by transparent and unusually extensive engagement with a broad set of stakeholders. The NZA approach established a new standard for high-resolution energy-transition decision support modeling, but further improvements in methods and tools are needed. A foremost need is improving optimization modeling so that it better reflects on-the-ground realities and risks associated with efforts to deploy energy technologies and infrastructure at the scales and pace needed to achieve mid-century net-zero emissions goals.