Five-Stakeholder Collaboration in Power Battery Recycling Within Reverse Supply Chains: Threshold Analysis and Policy Recommendations via Evolutionary Game and System Dynamics

The current retired recycling system suffers from “systemic coordination failure”, primarily due to ambiguous responsibility boundaries hindering interenterprise collaboration, unequal profit distribution discouraging technological innovation investment, and low participation from both consumers and recycling enterprises undermining the efficiency of recycling channels. However, the simplified tripartite game models commonly adopted in existing research exhibit significant limitations in explaining and addressing the above practical challenges, as they fail to incorporate consumers and third-party recyclers as strategic decision-makers into the analytical framework. To address these issues, this study develops, for the first time, a five-party evolutionary game model involving governments, vehicle manufacturers, battery producers, third-party recyclers, and consumers within a reverse supply chain framework. We further employ system dynamics to simulate the dynamic evolution of stakeholder strategies. The results show that: (1) When tri-party synergistic benefits exceed 15, the system transitions from resource dissipation to circular regeneration. (2) Government subsidies reaching the threshold of 2 effectively promote low-carbon transformation across the industrial chain. (3) Bilateral synergistic benefits of 12 can stimulate green technological innovation and industrial upgrading. (4) Establishing a multi-stakeholder governance framework is key to enhancing resource circulation efficiency. This research provides quantitative evidence and policy implications for constructing an efficient and sustainable power battery recycling system.