Integrating Land-Use Modeling with Coastal Landscape Interventions: A Framework for Climate Adaptation Planning in Dalian, China

Coastal cities face escalating flood risk under sea-level rise, yet landscape-based adaptation strategies often remain speculative and weakly connected to the accessibility and economic constraints that shape sustainable urban development. This study developed a modeling-to-design framework that translates coupled climate and land-use projections into implementable landscape interventions, through planning-level spatial allocation, using Dalian, China as a case study under “middle of the road” (SSP2-4.5) climate conditions. The framework integrates the Land-use Evolution and Assessment Model (LEAM) with connected-bathtub flood modeling to evaluate whether strategic landscape design can redirect development away from flood-prone zones while accommodating projected growth and maintaining accessibility to employment and services. Interventions—protective wetland restoration (810 km2) and blue–green corridors (8 km2)—derived from a meta-synthesis of implemented coastal projects were operationalized as LEAM spatial constraints. Our results show that residential development can be redirected away from coastal risk with 100% demand satisfaction and elimination of moderate-risk allocations. Cropland demand was fully accommodated. In contrast, commercial development experienced 99.8% reduction under strict coastal protection, reflecting locational dependence on port-adjacent sites. This modeling-to-design framework offers a transferable approach to quantifying where landscape interventions succeed, where they face barriers, and where complementary measures are required, supporting decision-making that balances environmental protection, economic function, and social accessibility in sustainable coastal development.