Spatial Analysis and Fairness Evaluation of Seismic Emergency Shelter Distribution in High-Density Cities Based on GIS: A Case Study of Seoul

Seismic disasters pose major challenges to urban resilience, particularly in high-density cities where the concentration of people, buildings, and infrastructure amplifies disaster risk. This study establishes a GIS-based analytical framework to evaluate the spatial distribution and fairness of seismic emergency shelters in Seoul, using built-up neighborhoods (called dongs in Korean) as the basic analytical unit. Three dimensions are assessed: (1) 500 m walking accessibility based on the road network; (2) redundancy, representing the number of shelters simultaneously reachable; and (3) fairness analysis, integrating spatial and population-based dimensions to reveal disparities between shelter provision and population demand. The results indicate that overall accessibility in Seoul is relatively high, with more than 50% of dongs achieving coverage levels above 50%. However, distinct spatial disparities remain. Central and mountainous areas, such as Jung-gu, Jongno-gu, and southern Seocho-gu, show coverage rates below 20%, while districts in the southwest and northeast exhibit higher redundancy. Fairness analysis further reveals inequality in shelter capacity relative to population: excluding null values, the median coverage ratio is 0.92 and the mean is 1.29, with only 44.97% of dongs achieving sufficient or surplus capacity (coverage ≥ 1). Notably, 44 dongs fall into the Low–High category, representing areas with large populations but limited shelter access, mainly concentrated in Jungnang-gu, Gangbuk-gu, and Yangcheon-gu. These dongs should be prioritized in future planning. Policy implications highlight strengthening shelter provision in high-population but low-coverage zones, incorporating evacuation functions into urban redevelopment, promoting inter-district resource sharing, and improving public awareness. The proposed framework provides a transferable model for optimizing seismic shelter systems in other high-density urban contexts.