Stochastic Model Predictive Control for Photovoltaic Energy Plants: Coordinating Energy Storage, Generation, and Power Quality

The increasing integration of photovoltaic (PV) systems into modern power grids poses significant operational challenges, including variability in solar generation, fluctuations in demand, degradation of power quality, and reduced reliability under uncertain conditions. Addressing these challenges requires advanced control strategies that can manage uncertainty while coordinating storage, inverter-level actions, and power quality functions. This paper proposes a unified stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) framework for the optimal management of photovoltaic (PV) systems under uncertainty. The approach integrates chance-constrained optimization with Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling to ensure system reliability under variable solar irradiance and demand profiles. Unlike conventional deterministic MPCs, the proposed method explicitly addresses stochastic disturbances while optimizing energy storage, generation, and power quality. The framework introduces a hierarchical control architecture, where a centralized SMPC coordinates global energy flows, and decentralized inverter agents perform local Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) and harmonic compensation based on the instantaneous power theory. Simulation results demonstrate significant improvements in energy efficiency from 78% to 85%, constraint satisfaction from 85% to 96%, total harmonic distortion reduction by 25%, and resilience (energy supply loss reduced from 15% to 5% under fault conditions), compared to classical deterministic approaches. This comprehensive methodology offers a robust solution for integrating PV systems into modern grids, addressing sustainability and reliability goals under uncertainty.