Analysis and Optimization of Fuzzy ARTMAP Parameters for Multinodal Electric Load Forecasting

Accurate electrical load forecasting is fundamental to the efficient operation of energy systems and plays a decisive role in both generation planning and the prevention of supply interruptions. Anticipating demand with precision enables energy generation and distribution to be adjusted effectively, reducing risks for both industrial and residential consumers. However, forecasting is challenged by climatic variations, demographic changes, and evolving consumption patterns, which limit the effectiveness of traditional approaches. Advanced machine learning techniques such as artificial neural networks have demonstrated potential to address these challenges, although their performance depends strongly on hyperparameter optimization. This study applies a multinodal forecasting methodology based on the Fuzzy ARTMAP network to predict short-term electricity demand at nine substations in New Zealand. The method involves an exhaustive search for network parameters, particularly the vigilance parameters ρa and ρb and the learning rate β, which are critical to model performance. The input data were extended with statistical measures—maximum, minimum, mean, and standard deviation—to evaluate their contribution to forecast accuracy. The results showed that the standard deviation provided the most consistent improvements among the windowing techniques, reducing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in most substations. Parameter analysis further indicated that specific combinations such as ρa and β strongly influence category formation within the network, and consequently the precision of the forecasts.