Short-Term Frost Prediction During Apple Flowering in Luochuan Using a 1D-CNN–BiLSTM Network with Attention Mechanism

Early spring frost is a major meteorological hazard during the Apple Flowering period. To improve frost event prediction, this study proposes a hybrid 1D-CNN-BiLSTM-Attention model, with its core novelty lying in the integrated dual attention mechanism (Self-attention and Cross-variable Attention) and hybrid architecture. The 1D-CNN extracts extreme points and mutation features from meteorological factors, while BiLSTM captures long-term patterns such as cold wave accumulation. The dual attention mechanisms dynamically weight key frost precursors (low temperature, high humidity, calm wind), aiming to enhance the model’s focus on critical information. Using 1997–2016 data from Luochuan (four variables: Ground Surface Temperature (GST), Air Temperature (TEM), Wind Speed (WS), Relative Humidity (RH)), a segmented interpolation method increased temporal resolution to 4 h, and an adaptive Savitzky–Golay Filter reduced noise. For frost classification, Recall, Precision, and F1-score were higher than those of baseline models, and the model showed good agreement with the actual frost events in Luochuan on 6, 9, and 10 April 2013. The 4 h lead time could provide growers with timely guidance to take mitigation measures, alleviating potential losses. This research may offer modest technical references for frost prediction during the Apple Flowering period in similar regions.