Mechanisms of Topographic Steering and Track Morphology of Typhoon-like Vortices over Complex Terrain: A Dynamic Model Approach

This study investigates the mechanisms of topographic steering and the resultant track morphology of typhoon-like vortices over complex terrain. Leveraging a dynamic model based on potential vorticity (PV) conservation, we conducted a comprehensive sensitivity analysis over both an idealized bell-shaped mountain and the realistic topography of Taiwan. Results indicate that a triad of controls governs track evolution: vortex intensity (α), terrain geometry (dhB*/dt*), and interaction time (impinging angle γ). To quantify predictability, we introduce the Track Divergence Percentage (td), which partitions the phase space into distinct Track Diverging (TDZ) and Converging (TCZ) Zones. The results demonstrate that vortex intensity, terrain-induced forcing, and interaction time jointly organize a regime-dependent predictability landscape, characterized by distinct zones of track divergence and convergence separated by a dynamically balanced trajectory. This framework provides a physically interpretable explanation for why small perturbations in initial conditions can lead to qualitatively different track outcomes near complex terrain. Rather than aiming at direct forecast skill improvement, this study provides a physically interpretable diagnostic framework for understanding terrain-induced track sensitivity and uncertainty, with implications for interpreting ensemble spread in forecasting systems.