Research on Diverse Pathways for Coordinated Development of Agroforestry Economy and Ecological Environment: The Case of China, 2012–2023

The coordinated development of the agroforestry economy and the ecological environment is crucial for promoting the sustainable development and high-quality transformation of the agroforestry economy. Based on TOE theory and utilizing provincial-level panel data from China covering 2012–2023, this study comprehensively employs dynamic QCA and NCA methods to explore the multi-faceted driving pathways and supporting factors for the coordinated development of the agroforestry economy and ecological environment across temporal and spatial dimensions. Key findings include: (1) Coordinated development requires synergistic contributions from multiple factors—technological, organizational, and environmental—rather than isolated effects of any single element. While no single factor alone constitutes a necessary condition for coordination, the importance of technological innovation, market demand, and industrial support is progressively increasing; (2) The coordinated development of the agroforestry economy and ecological environment involves multiple pathways and complex mechanisms. Specifically, it encompasses four distinct approaches: enterprise-driven and industry-supported model, technology-innovation-led model, market-driven factor integration model, and government-led multi-stakeholder collaboration model; (3) No significant temporal effects emerged across all pathways, but pronounced spatial heterogeneity was evident. The enterprise-driven and industry-supported model suits Northeast and Central China; the technology-innovation-led model is suitable for South China and Northeast China; the market-driven factor integration model is suitable for East China, Central China, and Southwest China; the government-led multi-stakeholder collaboration model is suitable for Southwest China and Central China. Therefore, to enhance the coordinated development of the agroforestry economy and ecological environment, each region should adopt a holistic perspective, leverage its unique resource and factor endowments, strengthen the integrated matching of technological, organizational, and environmental factors, and explore development pathways tailored to local conditions.