Counterfactual evidence on the impacts of operations research on Philippine disaster risk reduction efforts

Purpose This study sought to determine whether the integration of operations research (OR) into the Philippines’ national disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) efforts – through the institutionalization of Project NOAH in the National Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council’s (NDRRMC) Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) system – had a measurable impact on disaster outcomes. Design/methodology/approach Using counterfactual analysis of disaster data from 1986 to 2024, the study compares fatalities and damage trends before (1986–2013) and after (2014–2024) the operationalization of OR in DRRM. Findings The results of our study indicate that the use of OR is at least partially responsible for the reduction in the number of deaths per year since it was embedded in the DRRM interventions of the Philippine government. Through the narrative provided, this paper seeks to explain how applied research and the application of international best practices, when used by the Philippine government, can be instrumental in the mitigation of fatalities due to disasters. Research limitations/implications In order for disaster-related research to have a greater impact, it should be conducted in close coordination with decision makers before, during and after calamities. This can be in the form of embedding research in the operations of government, similar to what was done from 2014 to 2016, where the academe was made part of the PDRA system of the NDRRMC. In the PDRA system, researchers monitored the incoming cyclones using advanced technologies and frontier science to provide hazard-specific, area-focused and time-bound warnings on a 24-h basis during inclement weather. Practical implications OR can also be embedded in the formulation of development and disaster mitigation plans for communities such as Local Climate Change Action Plans (LCCAP), Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUP), Comprehensive Development Plans (CDP) and Climate Disaster Risk Assessments (CDRA). All these plans require inputs from experts in the fields of energy, tourism, education, environment, forestry, agriculture, fisheries and mining, among others. Research on disaster-related topics from universities are mainstreamed into the plans of the local government units (LGUs) to provide knowledge that is local, scientific and up-to-date. Originality/value The use of OR, as demonstrated in the study, was found to be an effective strategy in reducing the number of fatalities from disasters and is part of a genuine science-based, transdisciplinary and whole-of-society approach to DRRM.