A Note on the Remaining Useful Life(RUL) Prediction of Underground Corroded Pipes Using Structural Reliability Analysis

Purpose: Corrosion on the outer wall of a pipe degrades its structural strength and consequently shortens its service life. This paper presents a procedure for assessing the remaining useful life (RUL) of underground pipelines with corrosion defects.<br/>Methods: The probability of failure (POF) is estimated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) based on a structural reliability model. The time at which the POF reaches a specified threshold is identified, and a probability distribution of the remaining useful life is then derived. To account for time-varying corrosion growth behavior, a Poisson square wave process (PSWP) is employed.<br/>Results: Experimental results indicate that pipe burst pressure approximately follows a normal distribution, and that the combined MCS–PSWP approach is effective for RUL prediction. The First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method yields relatively conservative predictions in comparison.<br/>Conclusion: The proposed procedure provides a systematic basis for improving the risk assessment process of long-term corroded underground pipelines.