Emission reduction potential from beverage carton recycling in China

Recycling postconsumer beverage cartons reduces carbon emissions by minimizing both direct emissions from disposal via incineration or landfills, and by reducing the demand for producing virgin materials. However, the contribution that recycling beverage carton could make to China’s carbon reduction ambitions remains unknown. This study establishes a framework for evaluating the carbon emissions reduction potential of recycling postconsumer beverage cartons from a life-cycle perspective and calculates the potential carbon reductions for 31 Chinese provinces, including trajectories for 2030. We identify key factors that could greatly influence the total emissions reduction potential across all provinces, including the proportion of paperboard used and the emission factor of primary aluminum production. We show the incineration rate and electricity emission factor explain variations among provinces when recycling volumes are held constant. Integrated direct extrusion recycling technology has a greater dependence on electricity than the separating method and is therefore more significantly affected by the electricity emission factor. In 2030, recycling under one of five shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios considered shows the highest potential for carbon emissions reduction (median = 21 304 tons of CO 2 equivalents). This study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to quantify subsidy levels and design long-term plans for beverage carton recycling to promote a circular economy.