What Drives Housing Demand in Turkey? An Empirical Perspective

This study examines the factors influencing household homeownership in Turkiye using data from the 2022 Household Budget Survey conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute. By employing Adaptive Lasso, logit, and probit models, the research identifies critical socioeconomic and demographic determinants affecting homeownership. The Adaptive Lasso method refines variable selection by excluding predictors such as working hours, agricultural employment, family structure, and wage earnings, allowing for a more accurate model. Logit and probit analyses confirm that age, household size, savings, disposable income, and car ownership significantly increase the likelihood of homeownership, aligning with lifecycle and financial stability theories. However, higher education negatively correlates with homeownership, possibly reflecting the impact of urbanization, career mobility, and evolving lifestyle preferences. This finding underscores the complexity of homeownership decisions, where economic factors tend to outweigh traditional demographic determinants like gender and marital status. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the necessity for strategies to enhance urban housing affordability, financial security, and inclusive housing policies. By addressing these factors, policymakers can work towards ensuring broader accessibility to homeownership, particularly for younger and lower-income households.