Prediction of the Location and Intensity of Strong Continental Earthquakes (Based on Mathematical Modeling Results)

The findings derived from mathematical modeling of the stress-strain state in the epicentral zones of significant continental earthquakes with > 6 present new avenues for determining the earthquake’s initiation point, predicting its intensity, and providing preliminary assessments of the shaking characteristics of “medium” soils typically found at construction sites. Utilizing the example of the substantial earthquake that occurred in Iran (specifically in the Bam region) on December 26, 2003, with a 6.6, this study outlines the results of a retrospective analysis aimed at forecasting the potential location and extent of the rupture within the earthquake’s focus, as well as calculating the static seismic moment 0. The stress release associated with these events facilitates the dissipation of accumulated tectonic stresses during the subsequent aftershock sequences. Furthermore, a temporal function of the seismic moment rate 0( ) has been derived based on a model reflecting the stress-strain state of the rupture. The results presented herein enable the construction of a predictive isoseismal map during the retrospective forecasting phase, along with the generation of synthetic seismograms and accelerograms for strong crustal earthquakes.