How does the e-commerce policy affect urban land resource carrying capacity?

National e-commerce demonstration city (NEDC) pilots play a crucial role in transforming urban e-commerce and significantly affect urban land resource carrying capacity (LRCC). Using panel data from prefecture-level cities in China spanning 2006 to 2020, this study treats the NEDC pilot program as a quasi-natural experiment. A theoretical mechanism analysis was conducted to explore the implications of the NEDC pilot program on urban LRCC, and the propensity score matching double-difference method was used to estimate its effects. The findings show that the NEDC pilot program significantly inhibits the enhancement of urban LRCC, a conclusion that remains robust after multiple validity tests. Moreover, as the level of green development in urban land increases, the impact of the NEDC pilot program on urban LRCC shifts from positive to negative. This negative effect is especially pronounced in regions with lower levels of urban informatization, as well as in central and western areas and large cities. Furthermore, the mechanism analysis indicates that the NEDC pilot program exerts a significant negative influence on urban LRCC through three main channels: technological innovation, industrial structure, and economic correlation.