Asymmetric Effects of Trade Openness and Chinese FDI on Indonesia's Economic Growth, 2010–2023

Abstract: This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of trade openness and Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) on Indonesia’s economic growth during the period 2010–2023. The research is motivated by the increasing intensity of Indonesia–China economic relations, where trade and investment have become major channels of integration into the global economy. Annual time-series data on GDP, trade, and FDI were obtained from the World Bank, UN Comtrade, and Statistics Indonesia (Central Bureau of Statistics). Using a multiple linear regression model, the study examines the extent to which bilateral trade openness and FDI inflows from China contribute to Indonesia’s GDP growth. The empirical results reveal that bilateral trade openness with China exerts a strong and statistically significant positive effect on GDP, indicating that greater trade integration enhances market access, export diversification, and production efficiency. In contrast, Chinese FDI demonstrates a positive but statistically insignificant effect, suggesting limited linkages with domestic industries and weak absorptive capacity of the host economy. These findings highlight the asymmetric role of trade and investment, where trade emerges as the primary driver of Indonesia’s growth, while the benefits of FDI remain constrained by structural and institutional challenges. The study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence from a major emerging economy and underscores the need for policies that strengthen domestic absorptive capacity, enhance local industry participation, and maximize spillover effects of foreign investment.